Modern Machine Shop

AUG 2018

Modern Machine Shop is focused on all aspects of metalworking technology - Providing the new product technologies; process solutions; supplier listings; business management; networking; and event information that companies need to be competitive.

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GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX MMS AUGUST 2018 312 mmsonline.com A.C. Michael Guckes, MBA CHIEF ECONOMIST— GARDNER INTELLIGENCE mguckes@gardnerweb.com Supply Chain and Employment Now Primary Index Drivers Index component movement indicates maturing expansion. Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years. Gardner Intelligence is a division of Gardner Business Media, publisher of this magazine. The Gardner Business Index (GBI): Metalworking indicated slowing growth for the fourth consecutive month with a reading of 57.5 for June. However, the economic and business conditions in manufactur- ing are well above the historic average of 51.0. Compared to last June, the Index is up 2.6 percent, driven higher by supplier deliveries and employment. Readings for new orders, backlog and exports lowered the Index's average-based calculation. This is the second consecutive month in which new orders weighed down the overall index. None of the index com- ponents contracted (registered below 50.0) during the month. Expansion in supplier deliveries and employment suggest that the met- alworking supply chain continues to grow to handle the robust demand for products experienced over the last 18 to 24 months. This, combined with slowing growth of new orders since the first quarter, suggests that we may be experiencing a maturation of the upcycle phase of the business cycle. The Metalworking Index continues to report well-above-average readings; however, the drivers behind these readings have shifted from new orders and production to supplier deliveries and employ- ment. This change in drivers may indicate that the current business upcycle is maturing. During the first half of 2018, employment and supplier deliveries readings registered several all-time highs. In June, both components became the first- and second- fastest-growing measures of the averages-based Metalworking Index. PRESENTED BY Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. Visit Gardner Intelligence's blog at gardnerintelligence.com/blog . SUPPLIER DELIVERIES & EMPLOYMENT 3-MMA METALWORKING BUSINESS INDEX 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 40 50 60 57.8 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 40 45 50 55 60 65 Supplier Deliveries Employment

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