Modern Machine Shop

OCT 2018

Modern Machine Shop is focused on all aspects of metalworking technology - Providing the new product technologies; process solutions; supplier listings; business management; networking; and event information that companies need to be competitive.

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GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX MMS OCTOBER 2018 144 mmsonline.com A.C. Michael Guckes, MBA CHIEF ECONOMIST— GARDNER INTELLIGENCE mguckes@gardnerweb.com Index Experiences Broad August Rebound Five of six business indicators show significant growth. Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years. Gardner Intelligence is a division of Gardner Business Media, publisher of this magazine. Registering 58.1 for August, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Metal- working recorded accelerating growth for the first time after reaching an all-time high in February. The Metalworking Index grew by 6 per- cent from the same month one year ago. Additionally, August's reading brought the index above its 2017 average—the best average annual read- ing in recorded history—of 55.8. Supplier deliveries drove the index fol- lowed by production, new orders and employment. While the readings for backlog and exports lowered the index's average, none of the components contracted (registered below 50.0) during the month. The broad-based resumption of accelerating growth by index drivers tends to indicate that significant economic factors are driving the economy toward greater growth as opposed to a one-oŒ event that may drive a single index component momentarily higher. Since February 2016, backlog readings have registered 17 consecutive months of growth, the longest duration of continuing backlog growth. This long-running growth in backlogs suggests that manufacturing production levels still have room to grow in 2018 and 2019. The Metalworking Index reading for August moved higher for the first time since setting an all-time-high reading in February. The index was propelled higher by a broad- based rally in most of the six components that form the index. Backlogs recorded additional growth for a 17th consecutive month. This is by far the longest period of sustained expansion in backlogs in recorded history, and may serve as proof of the need for greater domestic manufacturing production through the rest of 2018 and into 2019. PRESENTED BY Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. Visit Gardner Intelligence's blog at gardnerintelligence.com/blog. BACKLOG CONTINUES ITS LONGEST GROWTH STREAK IN RECORDED HISTORY METALWORKING BUSINESS INDEX 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 35 40 45 50 55 60 58.1 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 35 40 45 50 55 60

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