Modern Machine Shop

NOV 2018

Modern Machine Shop is focused on all aspects of metalworking technology - Providing the new product technologies; process solutions; supplier listings; business management; networking; and event information that companies need to be competitive.

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GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX MMS NOVEMBER 2018 152 mmsonline.com A.C. Michael Guckes, MBA CHIEF ECONOMIST— GARDNER INTELLIGENCE mguckes@gardnerweb.com Index Reaches Historic Acceleration in Growth Supplier deliveries drove the index in September. Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years. Gardner Intelligence is a division of Gardner Business Media, publisher of this magazine. Registering 57.1 for September, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Metalworking recorded strong growth through the third quarter of 2018. The average year-to-date reading of 58.5 is significantly better than the 55.6 average during the same time a year ago. Never in the history of the Index have the first three quarters of the year seen such an acceleration in growth. The Index grew by 1.6 percent from the same month a year ago. Supplier deliveries drove the index for a sixth consecutive month followed by production, new orders and employment. The readings for backlogs and exports conversely lowered the index's aver- age-based calculation. After recording growth during the last three months, exports experienced its most significant contraction since the fourth quarter of 2017. The reading was impacted by 10-percent tariffs imposed on $200 bil- lion of Chinese goods by the United States September 24. The tariff rate will increase to 25 percent if a trade resolution is not agreed upon by January 1. Simultaneously, China implemented 5- to 10-percent tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods. As supply chains adjust to account for these tariffs, future months of GBI data will measure the true impact from the latest tariffs. The Metalworking Index reading for September was propelled higher by four of the six business index components. Only exports experienced a contraction in September. During the last week of September, new trade tariffs were enacted on $200 billion in Chinese goods while China levied tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. exports. These activities may be a partial cause for the first export contraction recorded in nearly a year. Despite the September contraction in exports, total new orders accelerated slightly during the month. PRESENTED BY Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. Visit Gardner Intelligence's blog at gardnerintelligence.com/blog . NEW ORDERS AND EXPORTS (3MMA) METALWORKING BUSINESS INDEX 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 35 40 45 50 55 60 57.1 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 40 45 50 55 60 65 New Orders Exports

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