Modern Machine Shop

DEC 2018

Modern Machine Shop is focused on all aspects of metalworking technology - Providing the new product technologies; process solutions; supplier listings; business management; networking; and event information that companies need to be competitive.

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GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX MMS DECEMBER 2018 112 mmsonline.com A.C. Michael Guckes, MBA CHIEF ECONOMIST— GARDNER INTELLIGENCE mguckes@gardnerweb.com Deliveries, Production and New Orders Lead Index Expansion Weakness in exports seems to have little effect on total new orders. Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years. Gardner Intelligence is a division of Gardner Business Media, publisher of this magazine. Registering 57.7 for October, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Metal- working extended its accelerating growth trend since its recent July low. It seems 2018 is likely to achieve the highest average index reading of any calendar year in recorded history. (The current record of 55.8, which was set in 2017, beat by a wide margin the prior record of 52.8, which was set in 2014.) For a sixth consecutive month, supplier deliveries continued to be the leading component driving the total index higher, followed by new orders and production. The readings for employment, backlogs and exports, however, lowered the index's average-based calculation. The latest readings of supplier deliveries, production and new orders do not indicate that an immediate change of course in metalworking manufacturing has or is taking place. In fact, the latest readings continue to be within the same elevated range of readings that were first recorded in early 2017. Fur- thermore, there is a long-running positive trend in backlog growth between early 2017 and continuing through the present, which further suggests that demand is still outstripping the available supply of output. Supplier deliveries, new orders and production all drove the Metalworking Index reading higher during October. Among all components, only exports contracted. For a seventh consecutive month, supplier deliveries registered the fastest expansion among all other components. Despite the unprecedented pace of increased supplier deliveries, a long upward trend in backlog readings going back to early 2017 continues to persist. PRESENTED BY Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. Visit Gardner Intelligence's blog at gardnerintelligence.com/blog . GBI:METALWORKING—SUPPLIER DELIVERIES & BACKLOG (3MMA) METALWORKING BUSINESS INDEX

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