Modern Machine Shop

JUL 2018

Modern Machine Shop is focused on all aspects of metalworking technology - Providing the new product technologies; process solutions; supplier listings; business management; networking; and event information that companies need to be competitive.

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GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX MMS JULY 2018 144 A.C. Michael Guckes, MBA CHIEF ECONOMIST— GARDNER INTELLIGENCE Metalworking Index Remains Strong Although it shows slowing growth, the reading represents one of the highest in the index's history. Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for nearly 20 years. Gardner Intelligence is a division of Gardner Business Media, publisher of this magazine. Registering 58.6 for May, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Metal- working indicated slowing growth compared to the prior month. The index reading calculated among only metalcutting job shops was also down slightly from April's reading. Compared to the same month one year ago, the Metalworking Index grew by 2.6 percent. This relatively small increase is due in part to April 2017's reading being the second highest during that calendar year. Although the latest reading marks the third consecutive month of slowing growth in metalworking, it represents one of the highest readings in the Metalworking Index's recorded history. In May, strong expansion in supplier deliveries, production and employment drove the index higher. Readings for new orders, backlog and exports lowered the index's average-based calculation. The new orders reading was nearly the average of the components and had only a minimal impact on the index's calculation for the month. Excluding exports, all index components expanded during the month. While production and new order data indicate slower growth as we move through the second quarter of the year, the readings for supplier deliveries and employment are currently hitting new highs. This lagged behavior is consistent with Gardner Intelligence's theories of the manufacturing business cycle. During the fourth quarter of 2017 and first quarter of 2018, increased growth in new orders was quickly followed by increased production readings. Since then, we have seen readings of supplier deliveries and employment move sharply higher with a lag of at least 2 to 3 months. PRESENTED BY Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. Visit Gardner Intelligence's blog at . 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 4 0 5 0 6 0 58.6 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/18 7/18 40 50 60 70 Supplier Deliveries Employment METALWORKING PRODUCTION & EMPLOYMENT 3MMA METALWORKING BUSINESS INDEX

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